Friday, December 16, 2005

The HR Derby Ruined Lee's Stroke?

It has been suggested by posters at Brewerfan.net and Carlos Lee himself that his poor production in the second half was a result of the HR Derby. The theory is that swinging for the fences for a few minutes caused Lee to change his swing. The pre and post all star splits is usually given as "proof":

AB AVE OBP SLG OPS
Pre-All Star 339 .268 .336 .528 .864
Post-All Star 279 .262 .309 .437 .746

His slide actually began a full month before that, however:

AB AVE OBP SLG OPS
6/13 - 7/13 94 .213 .300 .426 .726

As I asked on brewerfan.net, doesn't the effect have to occur after the cause? Let's look at one final split:

AB AVE OBP SLG OPS
Before June 13 245 .290 .351 .567 .918
After June 13 373 .249 .307 .434 .741

Now, if we can just figure out what happened the morning of the 13th, the mystery will be solved! :)

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