Monday, July 24, 2006

Series Win Probabilities - PIT @ MIL



Three blown saves by Turnbow turned an impressive 6-3 road trip to a depressing 3-6 disappointment. My beloved Brewers currently sit at 47 – 52 and 5 games back in the wild card standings. Even finishing with a winning record will prove to be a challenge at this point. Crew will have to finish the season 35 – 28 in order to get that 82nd win and at least psychologically build onto last year’s modest success.


The Brewers need a sweep and Davis, Sheets and Capuano will be the ones who will have to do it. My probability calculations give them about a one in five chance of doing it, but you have to believe that the big three ups the odds a bit. I’ll be attending Tuesday to see Ben’s return, so that has to be good for at least an extra 1% chance.

Requesting a sweep is never a good idea but desperate times call for desperate measures!

3 Comments:

Anonymous Dave T said...

Excellent site! Can you recommend a good reference site for SABR basics?

Thank you
Dave

10:07 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

1 down, 2 to go. About a 1 in 3 chance of a sweep. Keep hope alive!

10:34 AM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

Baseball Prospectus has a nice series on Sabermetric Basics:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2563

At the bottom right of that article, you'll find links to all their other related articles:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/index.php?column=31

Also, check out Tangotiger.net

Finally, there's some great books out there as well. If you like what you read above, feel free to ask about them.

8:43 AM  

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