Tuesday, May 27, 2008

No More SOS, Please.

20 home games, 31 road games; against eams with great records. Even Yost is using it as an excuse. Is there merit to it?

Not really.

While it's true that, through 5/26, the Brewers have faced teams with an average win percentage of .526, when you aren't even a quarter of the way through the season, that's just not a very good estimator of a team's actual strength. The average pythagorean win percentage of their opponent has been .516, suggesting that the straight win percentage might be inflated somewhat. What else can we look at at?

Only 50 games into the season, we know that preseason projections still tell us a lot about a team's true collective talent. Looking at the average preseason projections from here, the average projected win percentage of their opponents so far has been only .487. So, let's weigh that 75% and the 50-odd games 25%. Using the log5 method for each game and adding in the average 4% advantage to the home team, for a perfectly average team, we get the following average win expectancy for the season so far:

Actual win/loss record: 49.4%
Pythagorean Record: 49.7%

Even with all those road games, the Brewers have basically had an average strength of schedule.

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