Friday, February 29, 2008

Sheets: Expected Performance and Playing Time

This is nothing a Baseball Prospectus subscriber hasn't seen before but as part of a free article, BP published a graph showing a projection of Sheets' playing time and performance for 2008:



"Here, there is not much of a diagonal pattern; the Brewers have a pretty good idea of what Sheets’ performance level is likely to be, it’s just a question of how long he actually stays healthy to turn in that performance, reflected in a lot of variance along the playing time axis."


BP: The New-Look PECOTA Cards

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Russ, do you see much value in that chart?

I'm not a BP subscriber, so even if BP does reveal their methods, I wouldn't understand what this shows.

I squint at the chart to help find the concentrated (red) area... and it looks to me like the projection is that Sheets will pitch somewhere from 120-190 innings with an ERA from somewhere around 3.00 to 4.50.

Add in the outliers in the lower right and it shows there is, what, maybe a 10% chance he gets hurt?

Seems totally useless to me. Perhaps looking at others might reveal something.

What's your take?

--jacob

12:14 PM  

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