Sheets: Expected Performance and Playing Time
This is nothing a Baseball Prospectus subscriber hasn't seen before but as part of a free article, BP published a graph showing a projection of Sheets' playing time and performance for 2008:
BP: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
"Here, there is not much of a diagonal pattern; the Brewers have a pretty good idea of what Sheets’ performance level is likely to be, it’s just a question of how long he actually stays healthy to turn in that performance, reflected in a lot of variance along the playing time axis."
BP: The New-Look PECOTA Cards
posted by rluzinski at 6:49 PM
1 Comments:
Russ, do you see much value in that chart?
I'm not a BP subscriber, so even if BP does reveal their methods, I wouldn't understand what this shows.
I squint at the chart to help find the concentrated (red) area... and it looks to me like the projection is that Sheets will pitch somewhere from 120-190 innings with an ERA from somewhere around 3.00 to 4.50.
Add in the outliers in the lower right and it shows there is, what, maybe a 10% chance he gets hurt?
Seems totally useless to me. Perhaps looking at others might reveal something.
What's your take?
--jacob
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