Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Brewers Chances of Winning the Central?

Take some of the better projection systems, throw them into Diamond Mind and this is what you get:



The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 1


The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 2


The Hardball Times projections give the Brewers the most average wins (87.9) and ZiPS gives them the least (82.6). The average final win totals for the NL Central:

Cubs: 88.2
Brewers: 85.0
Cardinals: 78.3
Reds: 76.9
Astros: 74.6
Pirates: 69.8

It's basically the Cubs, Brewers and everyone else. These projections try to use past playing time to project future playing time, which likely means that Sheets only has around 150 IP in that 85 win total. Another 50 innings might add an extra 1.5 wins, substantially cutting into that Cubs lead. I wouldn't count on it but a fan can hope!

2 Comments:

Blogger Steve said...

Warning....my opinions have no statistical foundation...The buzz around NL broadcsast booths this spring has been about...."over-rated Brewers and their inevitable demise" from last year's golden opportunity. Don't you love the rivals potentially waking up a sleeping giant? Remember when Prince gave Matt Kapps a WWF stare down last year after being beaned? And then, the extra enthusiasm when Prince homered or doubled to win a game off Kapps? That's the fire I love in the Brewers!! The fire to shut up critics once and for all...The critical announcers say the Brewers defense is still crap, the end of th ebatting order is terrible, and the starting pitching is nothing better than mediocre..
Cameron and to begin with Gwynn in centerfield with Braun backing up a bit and roaming the more conspicuous left field...another year for Weeks and Hardy...Hall's range at third....sounds like an improvement to me..

And who will be batting 7th? JJ Hardy? and who 9th? Jason Kendall? Sounds alright to me..

And Carlos Villanueva as a number 3 or number 4...Carlos V..with 115 IP and 99 hits surrendered or something like that...with alot of strikeouts....Nice, lefty Parra motivated to perform like he did this spring prior to the 2 bad outings.....and maybe stay on board when Yo returns.....David Riske as a back up set up man to Turnbow...I don't know....it sounds freakin' good to me!!!
I wish we had a Cliff Floyd or Sean Casey to bat lefty off the bench....

9:38 AM  
Anonymous Kristin said...

I actually like that the Brewers are not constantly being chosen as the #1 team in the division, it keeps the pressure off them and on the Cubs.

2:31 PM  

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