Monday, July 07, 2008

How Much Will Sabathia be Worth in Wins?

Here's my guess:



Pretty straight forward stuff. I assumed a 3.25 ERA for Sabathia in the NL and a 4.75 ERA for Bush, going forward. I also assumed that the offense would continue scoring at the same rate they have through 88 games (4.6 runs/game). To calculate the win percentage, I just used James' Pythagorean (with a 1.82 exponent).

It might be McClung who is ultimately taken out of the lineup, which may or may not have a larger impact, depending on who you ask. The addition of Bush or McClung to the bullpen will be a net gain, though, so this trade may be worth closer to 2.5 wins when all is said and done. That may not sound like much but going from 89 wins to 91 or 92 wins is definitely the sweet spot when it comes to making the playoffs.

And please, don't tell me I'm not accounting for the positive psychological impact this trade will have on the whole team. It may or may not have a significant impact but I doubt it will and there will be no way to prove it, regardless. As a result, I'm assuming (as I have to), that the psychological impact is zero wins.

The trade is a huge gamble but one with a potentially huge payoff. Heck if I know if it was the right move. Only time will tell.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

How about updating your post using actual numbers. I'd like to see what that looks like.

8:15 PM  

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