Friday, January 20, 2006

Jenkins Has a Nice Arm!

According to a small study done by Dan Fox, Jenkins has well respected arm strength and backs that up when tested. Yeh I know, tell you something you don't already know. Still, it's nice when statistics actually validates what eyes already tell ues, especially when it's a defensive observation.

Fox's article looked at all situations from 2003 to 2005 where there was a runner at third with less than 2 outs and a flyball-out was made by an outfielder.

To Go or Not to Go?

He then looked at the percentage of flyouts where the runner at third was held (hold%) and the percent of runners that, when attepting to score, did so successfully(succ%). Finally, he compliled a leader list for all outfielders with atleast 15 opportunities for a given year.

To summarize his findings with regard to the Brewer OFers, Jenkins has a great arm, Lee is about average and Clark has an arm like a wet noodle. Jenkins threw out 30% of the runners that attempted to score from third last year(3 of 10) and 20% over the last 3 years (league average is 4.6%). He also has had a very good hold percentages as well (30.6% vs. a league average of about 20%). Lee held a slightly above average percentage of runners (24.5%) but has only thrown out 2 runners out of 37 opportunities (about league average percentage).

As a RFer, Clark held only 2 of 27 runners. Anyone who's seen Clark play knows his arm is better suited to play CF.

It's important to note that, because of the small sample sizes of the data in this study, all numbers should be taken with a grain of salt.

EDIT 3/1/06: Another article on the subject, agreeing on Jenkins' fine arm.


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