Friday, June 23, 2006

Series/Road Trip Win Probabilities - MIL @ KC

While the numbers look good for the Brewers this weekend, the Royals have actually been playing much better lately. They just swept the Pirates and have won 8 of their last 14 and 6 of their last 8. Couple that with no Cappy and a suspect Helling starting Sunday and a 2-1 series win for the Brewers would look really good to me. The Brewers have Bush today, Davis on Saturday and Helling on Sunday.

The Royals are just the start of a 10 game road trip, which also includes 4 with the Cubs and 3 with the Twins. I ran throgh a calculations, similar to the aboves, for the whole road trip. I ran the trip 10,000 times and here are the results:

Probabilities shown are for winning the amount of games and above. For instance, the Brewers have a two in three chance of at least splitting the series and a little over one in three chance of taking atleast 6 of 10. Not bad for a road trip!


Anonymous SW Chad Moeller's Dad said...

I'm going with 10!!! Unless Chad Moeller playes...then subtract 1 win for every game the Chad plays in.

1:21 AM  

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