Monday, June 19, 2006

Series Win Probabilities - DET @ MIL



It’s going to be tough series against the surprising Tigers. While the Brewers and Tigers offense is pretty even, the Tigers have them easily beat in pitching so far this year. It appears that Helling may get his first start of the season Tuesday, replacing Carlos Villanueva in the rotation. He may add some much needed stability, closing one of the two revolving doors in that rotation.

2 Comments:

Blogger Jondoe213 said...

I think the tigers have a pretty decent chance of sweeping the crew here i think 40% chance of the crew winning just ONE game appears to be inflated. As for the IDEA that Sir rick helling could "solidify" the rotation..well thats just pure fantasy why they sent villanueva down is beyond me i guess the brewers just really want to pack it up for this season.


The Sultan of Swing

11:09 AM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

I think the tigers have a pretty decent chance of sweeping the crew here i think 40% chance of the crew winning just ONE game appears to be inflated.

Those probabilities are no longer valid since there's now a 0% chance of the Brewers winning game Here's the new probabilities for the remaining 2 games:

Brewers win 2: 20.8%
Brewers win 1: 49.6%
Brewers win 0(sweep): 29.6%

As for the IDEA that Sir rick helling could "solidify" the rotation..well thats just pure fantasy why they sent villanueva down is beyond me i guess the brewers just really want to pack it up for this season.

Villanueva has 7 IP in the majors so far. I know he had a great start but he isn't ready yet and the Brewers know that.

As for Helling, I said he MIGHT help solidify the bullpen. As my previous post (summarizing how aweful the replacement pitchers have been) showed, the bar is set extremely low. I don't expect anything better than a 4.5ish ERA from him but that still would be a huge improvement over what Eveland, Hendrickson or JDLR has done.

4:20 PM  

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