Thursday, June 01, 2006

Should Clark Be Traded?

Just before the 2006 season, Melvin signed Clark to a 2 year, $7 mil deal. At the time, I think there were a lot of fans a little confused by the signing. Clark turned 33 this year and it seemed like Melvin may have overpaid for an aging, slightly above average CFer. With Hart and Hall continuing to rake and Weeks continuing to struggle defensively at 2B, would the Brewers be better off trading Clark and handing the CF job Weeks, Hart or Hall? Let’s look at some numbers:

Top 30 CFers in terms of ABs, 2005:
AVE: .276
OBP: .335
SLG: .423
OPS: .758

Clark in 161 AB, 2006:
AVE: .286
OBP: .389
SLG: .342
OPS: .731

Clark's PECOTA Projection, 2006:
AVE: .281
OBP: .349
SLG: .402
OPS: .749

Clark's offense has been about average so far this year and there's no reason to believe it will be anything more than that any time soon. In addition, Clark's defense appears to be a bit below average at this point in his career and his base running certainly doesn't add value. I would be surprised if a 34 year old Clark in 2007 is an even average CFer.

Of course, average does have value and it wouldn't kill the Brewers to have Clark's services in CF for the next two years if there were no better options available. I happen to think the Brewers have several options available to them that could at least be league average next year, however. While I wouldn't give him away, if Clark can be traded for a young pitcher (maybe packaged with another player), I'd be all for it.

5 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I thought clark and doug davis should have been traded last year when they actually had some value.

The diaper dandy

10:08 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think Brady and DD should have been traded last year when they actually had some value

The Diaper Dandy

10:15 AM  
Anonymous BC said...

The thing is, that OBP is probably going to be high, even if all he does is walk and single. I think if his OBP is 50 points above league average, that means a lot more than his OPS. That being said, if they can move him for a decent pitcher or pitching prospect in AA, they should definitely do it. Hart needs to play, I think he can easily handle CF.

Also, Russ, do you think this 2006 Brewers team may be manifesting the "glass ceiling" that James talked about - that if a team takes a big step forward one year, it will take a big step backward the next, and then break through? I think that might be happening, even though some will get worked up if they win 75 games or something, even though the difference between that and something like 85 is minimal because they wouldn't make the playoffs anyway. If they don't make the playoffs, does it really matter how many games they win?

10:46 AM  
Anonymous southwest brewer said...

Nothing against the guy personally, but I'd be happy to see him gone. We have a few guys that could take over....Hall/Hart/Gross/Weeks could all be given a shot (Weeks not necessarily given a shot, but b/c of his defense).

Hall needs a spot and can always fill in for infield duty during injuries...moving Hart/Gross into the CF spot.

Is there a reason the Gross talk has died down? He started hot, but he still has potential.

5:01 PM  
Anonymous Rob said...

No glass ceiling here. Its because of Sheets and Ohka being out. Even in Sheets abreviated season last year he had a WARP of 4.0 Ohka had a WARP of about 3 combining WAS and MIL numbers. Assuming a healthy Brewers team was going to win 85 games, replacinmg Sheets and Ohka with replacement level players would cost you about 9 wins assuming 180 innings from Sheets. The Brewers wish they replaced them with replacement level players. Eveland and Hendrickson combined to be -1 WARP.

11:50 AM  

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