Tuesday, August 15, 2006

2007 Projected Lineup

I threw together a projected lineup and performance for 2007. I had to make some assumptions, obviously. I'm approaching this as trying to find the low end of reasonable, so my assumptions keep that in mind:

1. Koskie is done. At this point, who knows but it at least needs to be planned for if it does. Hall gets handed the everyday 3B position. Hardy gets SS.

2. Melvin comes to his senses regarding Mench. He's not a #4 hitter. He's probably not even an everyday player.

3. Melvin can't deal Jenkins. I'm sure he'll try but I just can't see it happening. This sets up a Jenkins/Mench platoon in RF. Hart is given LF full time.

4. Melvin decides Gwynn needs some more development time in AAA and hands the everyday CF job to Gross. He'll have to sink or swing against lefties, which is going to bring his overall numbers down some.

4. Miller's option is picked up but his best days are behind him and Rivera will have to start 3 times a week. I just can't see Melvin being able to upgrade at this position.

I could be wrong with many of those assumptions but here's the resulting lineup:

                     BA   OBP   SLG   OPS
CF Gross .260 .340 .450 .790
LF Hart .270 .350 .450 .800
2B Weeks .290 .350 .460 .810
1B Fielder .290 .360 .510 .870
3B Hall .270 .330 .510 .840
RF Jenkins/Mench .260 .340 .470 .810
SS Hardy .270 .320 .430 .760
C Miller/Rivera .250 .320 .400 .720
None of those projections are unreasonable (IMO) and I think that still results in a solid lineup. There's also alot of potential there for players to substantially beat those projections (Hall especially). That's the beauty of a young team. This isn't 2002, where you had to worry about most of the lineup regressing.

What kind of payroll might we be looking at?



For pitching, I assumed Ohka would be signed to a 2 or 3 year deal at $6 mil per but it's really hard to guess at this point. I also assumed that Davis would be offered arbitration and I'm more confident of that prediction. I didn't add any free agent signings to the bullpen (although I have Melvin resigning Shouse) but since Mark A. is on record with a $70 mil payroll for next year, there's certainly money to upgrade there are somewhere else.

What's your vote? Bullpen? Corner outfielder? Starting pitcher?

2 Comments:

Anonymous sbrylski06 said...

You mentioned giving Rivera 3 starts a week. While I am slightly suprised at how well he has handled the bat this year, I am still weary of relying on him as a guy to share a lot of time with Miller. I would expect some regression in his bat, and I attribute his good looking stats right now in part because of the smaller sample size, but my other main concern is his arm. He has been stolen off of 17 times this year compared to just 2 runners that he threw out. That is 10%, which is pretty bad. In the last three years combined he is 5 for 27, which is 18.5%. However, in 2002 with the Tigers he was 12 for 20, which at 37.5% is pretty good.

Do you have any concern with his arm? Is the fact that he at least has had some success throwing out baserunners in the past something to fall back on and assume that with regular playing time his numbers will even back out?

7:08 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

I think a good deal of throwing out runner rates is dependant on the pitcher and the runner. Couple that with the smallish number of attempts we are talking about and the picture is pretty fuzzy.

Overall, I think rivera is at least as good as any other retread the Brewers might pick up to replace him. It's just hard to find any nuggets at that position.

1:36 PM  

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