Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Clutch Hitting on BTF

As is often the case, the discussion about an article on Baseball Think Factory is better than the article itself:

From Mike Emeigh:

The typical hitter (non-pitcher), in a situation with a leverage index less than 2, hit .269/.335/.428 in 2005. In a situation with a leverage index of 2 or greater, the typical hitter hit .264/.337/.413. The reason for the increase in OBP is that more hitters are intentionally walked in high-leverage situations; if you remove IBB from the mix, the adjusted OBP is .331 for leverage index situation less than 2, .326 for LI 2 or greater. If you look only at such situations from the seventh inning on in 2005, hitters batted .257/.327 (.322 w/out IBB)/.401 in lower-leverage situations, .256/.338 (.323 w/out IBB)/.393 in higher-leverage situations.

One could therefore argue that a hitter who performs as well in high-leverage situations as he does in lower-leverage situations has actually done "better" than expected.

FTM: Mnookin: David Ortiz is not a clutch hitter: A primer in how to lie with statistics


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