Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Team Contact Percentage

A request was made at brewerfan.net to look at teams' contact rate to runs scored. I had looked at this at the individual level a few months a ago but I'm going to use a different definition of "contact percentage" this time. Last time I looked BIP per PA, which unfairly penalizes players/teams that walk a alot. Instead, I'll treat walks, HBP and SH as a neutral even and use this for contact percent:

CONT% = (AB + SF - K)/AB

For 2006 so far:
TEAM           CONT%   R/GM
Chicago Sox 82.5% 5.66
NY Yankees 83.2% 5.56
Cleveland 81.0% 5.52
Boston 83.0% 5.51
Toronto 85.7% 5.39
Atlanta 79.4% 5.39
NY Mets 81.4% 5.37
Detroit 80.2% 5.25
St. Louis 85.3% 5.01
Minnesota 85.4% 5.01
Cincinnati 80.1% 5.01
Texas 81.9% 4.96
Arizona 84.4% 4.95
Philadelphia 79.4% 4.95
LA Dodgers 83.9% 4.94
Baltimore 85.4% 4.83
Seattle 84.2% 4.79
LA Angels 84.2% 4.75
San Francisco 85.2% 4.75
Colorado 81.1% 4.74
Milwaukee 78.3% 4.72
Florida 77.4% 4.64
San Diego 81.0% 4.61
Washington 81.0% 4.60
Pittsburgh 80.6% 4.55
Kansas City 82.4% 4.52
Houston 81.7% 4.52
Oakland 82.5% 4.45
Tampa Bay 80.5% 4.33
Chicago Cubs 84.7% 4.12
So, while the Brewers have the second worst CONT%, there are 9 teams that scored less runs per game than them (including the team with the worst contact percentage).

To get a clearer picture of how contact percentage might affect runs scored, let's see how well they coorelate to each other:

There's simply no simple, statistical connection between the two. Of course that just tells us two things that we already know:

1. Most players who strikeout a lot make up for it in other ways. If they didn't they wouldn't be in the league.

2. In the long run, a strikeout realy isn't much worse than any other kind of out.


Anonymous Anonymous said...

What are you saying in your second point? Is there ANY suggestion that strikeouts are worse than other outs; or are you saying they are NOT worse than other outs?

12:07 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

Strikeouts are only slightly worse than a BIP out in an average situation.

10:52 AM  

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