Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Packer Playoff Chances

It doesn't take a very smart man to figure out that the Packers have a very small chance of reaching the post season this year. It does take a man with mediocre intelligence to estimate just how bad those odds are, however! According to JSOnline, this is the "clearest and most likely way" the Packers can grab one of the two NFC wildcard spots:

• Packers win twice (MIN and @ CHI)
• Giants lose twice (NO and @ WAS)
• Rams lose once (WAS and @ MIN)
• Falcons lose once (CAR and @ PHI)
• Seattle wins once (SD and @ TB) or SF loses once (ARI and @ DEN)

I made some guestimations for individual game probabilities and then crunched the numbers:

Assuming the Packers take care of business by winning out (huge assumption, obviously), the biggest obstacle is needing the Giants to lose their remaining two games. The Giants probably have a better chance of winning their remaining games than losing them both, so Packer fans shouldn't be holding their breath. Still, it's insane to think that if the Packers win and the Giants lose this week, the Packers still have a shot going into the final week of the season. It won't be good odds but anything greater than zero will exceed most Packer fan's pre-season estimates.

Any of my individual game predictions way off? Any better scenarios that allow the Packers to squeak in?


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