Tuesday, March 20, 2007

Baseball Prospectus Projects the Brewers To Win Division

Using their PECOTA projection system, Baseball Prospectus simulated the 2007 season and guess who came out on top in the NL Central? That's right, our beloved Brewers:

BP 2007 MLB Standings Projection

The actual win/loss standings are "insider" information but a brewerfan.net poster was kind enough to paste the NL Central results:

          W  L  RS  RA   AVG  OBP  SLG
Brewers 85 77 789 748 .266 .335 .446
Cubs 84 78 828 792 .275 .337 .460
Cardinals 81 81 731 735 .261 .331 .417
Astros 79 83 760 783 .260 .332 .434
Pirates 76 86 752 804 .271 .331 .432
Reds 72 90 744 829 .259 .331 .424
The Brewers project to be about an 85 win team (as most of us guessed already) but, because of the state of the NL Central this year, that just might be enough to squeak out a division title. Of course, four or five NL Central teams have a realistic shot at the division this year but if some of the young Brewer positional player hit like we think they can, this might be an interesting year, however.

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