Thursday, December 28, 2006

Park Factors: 2006

USPatriot has updated his park factors for 2006. I like to use his park factors because, when possible, he uses 5 years of data (regressed) and also includes a HR park factor. Here you go:

TEAM       PF-R    PF-HR
ARI 1.06 1.06
ATL 0.99 0.98
BAL 0.98 1.03
BOS 1.02 0.94
CHA 1.02 1.13
CHN 1.01 1.07
CIN 1.01 1.08
CLE 0.97 0.93
COL 1.12 1.12
DET 0.97 0.94
FLA 0.96 0.93
HOU 1.01 1.05
KC 1.00 0.93
LA 0.96 1.04
LAA 0.97 0.94
MIL 1.00 1.03
MIN 1.00 0.95
NYA 0.98 1.01
NYN 0.97 0.95
OAK 0.99 1.00
PHI 1.03 1.08
PIT 1.00 0.95
SD 0.94 0.93
SEA 0.96 0.96
SF 0.99 0.90
STL 0.99 0.97
TB 0.99 0.98
TEX 1.07 1.08
TOR 1.03 1.07
WAS 0.97 0.94
A link to his park factor page:

LINK

Miller Park still plays as a perfectly neutral park, run wise. It still also gives up an above average amount of HRs, but the factor has reduced from 1.04 in 2005 to 1.03 when 2006 is included. That means that a Brewers batter will hit about 1.5% more HRs over the course of the year than he would had he played at a neutral HR park the whole year (assuming he plays half his games on the road).

4 Comments:

Blogger bensheetsraindelay said...

Discovered your blog as a link to other brewer sites. Thanks for reference to hitters discipline. You were discussing Jenkins and Mench and expressed concern over their possible departure. I agree with you completely! Jenkins has legitimate career numbers with Milwaukee. Mench is a good allaround guy who can fit into any clubhouse. Statistically, Mench hit .303 against lefties last year and Jenkins hit .306 against righties. Do you think a platoon would be useful? Is there a way to measure a players offensive output in relation to when it happened? Like a statistic that condensed factors such as late inning situations-10 run games-time of the year...etc.? Interested to hear your comments about Suppan. In addittion to being maybe that veteran-durable starter we need for his innings, he strikes me as an open minded guy like Curt Shilling. A guy willing to make a few adjustments to extend his career and a guy who may say or do one small thing that will impact on Sheets ten fold. Regarding his pitching career, I want to draw a comparrison with Vukovich. Larussa's teams, I would imagine are always above average on defense. This would partially explain his success. Similarly, I would imagine Milwaukee in 1982 had an excellent defensive team. How else did Vuke keep his ERA below 3.50 despite walking over 100 batters and allowing almost one hit per inning. Vuke was a scrapper and a winner. He knew how to reach down and make the right pitch when we needed it. This leads to my last question. Is there a way to measure a players defensive range and somehow inject those numbers into a pitchers nubers to come up with a new number? Maybe, there already is. All these new statistics are hard to keep up with. It's ironic that salaries skyrocket for mediocre players despite researchers coming closer to representing a players actual value through statistics. Having said all that, Counsell is a great addittion for us....It's unimagineable how valuable a good defense is....Look forward to your next post!!

11:26 AM  
Blogger p said...

Thanks for linking, however, one small correction: the PFs I print already include an adjustment for the fact that half of the games are on the road--they are designed to be applied directly to full season stats. So Miller Park in fact inflates HRs by 6%, and this is cut to 3% to account for the 1/2 of games on the road.

You are far from the first person to misinterpet this, so I think I will add a clearer explanation next time. Keep up the good work.

12:44 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

patriot,

Thanks for the correction! I'll update my post.

1:32 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

bensheetsraindelay,

Sorry for the delay. I'll answer your questions as best as I can:

"Do you think a platoon [of Jenkins and Mench] would be useful?"

Yes and no. They are players that beg to be platooned but both have publically expressed a desire to be everyday starters. I could see one or both being unhappy in a platoon.

"Is there a way to measure a players offensive output in relation to when it happened?"

ESPN.com provised some splits, sich as w/RISP (runners in scoring position), "close and late", etc... Generally, stat guys downplay the notion of clutch hitting and the like, so it's not given much attention.

The best way to quantify situation hitting IMO is to use a stat called win probability added (WPS). It measures the change in the probability of a team winning from Ab to AB. For instance, if a team has a 50% chance of winning a game in the bottom of the 9th and first batter hits a walk off HR, he's credited with a .5 WPA (50% chance of wining to 100% chance of winning. fangraphs.com keeps a tally for players and teams. Just google WPA for more info and/or search this blog.

"Is there a way to measure a players defensive range and somehow inject those numbers into a pitchers nubers to come up with a new number?"

The simplest way is to look at a teams' defense efficiancy ratio (DER). It measures the percentage of balls-in-play (BIP) that a defense converts into outs. It's really a measure of how good a defense is at making outs and how good a pitcher is at giving up BIPs that are easily defendable.

Because the Cardinals had a very good DER last year and the Brewers had a bad DER, it raises question marks about Suppan. Suppan is a groundball pitcher who doesn't get many strikeouts. As a result, he relies on his defense (especially his infield) to make outs. This might pose a problem. Or not. Defense is still a hard thing to quantify.

If you want to know what a pitcher's theoretical ERA would look like with a league average BABIP (batting average of balls in play) use a metric like FIPS (fielding independant pitching)(hardballtimes.com) or DIPS. They both look at only at HRs, walks/HBP and strikeouts (the things that the pitcher pretty much controls independant of his defense).

Hope that helps!

1:49 PM  

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