Monday, April 30, 2007

10 Game Home Stand Probabilities

The Brewers are starting a ten game home stand tonight against the Cardinals, Pirates and Nationals. The Brewers have done well so far this year, sitting atop the NL Central with a 15-9 record. In contrast, the Cards, Bucs and Nats have combined for a 29-42 record. While it's hard not to be optimistic, what exactly should Brewer fans expect the Crew to do over these next 10 games? Let's calculate some rough probabilities.

It's far too early to expect a teams record or run differential to accurately represent their true talent. For this exercise, I'll simply ballpark their true talent in the form of how many wins I think each team should win over the course of a season. Obviously, that's pretty subjective but I'll try to keep it reasonable. From that, I can come up with the probability the Brewers have of beating each team:

Game Probabilities

90 wins might be a bit optimistic for the Brewers (I predicted 85 wins before the season) but not unreasonable. Using those probabilities, I simulated the 10 game home stand 10,000 times with these results:

10 Game Simulation

The most likely result is a 7-3 home stand, although anywhere between 5-5 and 8-2 has a reasonable chance of occurring. It's also worth noting that despite the weaker opposition at home, there's still a 13% chance of "only" going 5-5 on the home stand. While I'm sure that would disappoint many a Brewer fan (including myself!), that's simply the nature of the game. It's why there's 162 games in a season and why a 7 game playoff series is basically a crap shoot. Anything can happen in a handful of games.

And if that 6% chance of four or less wins becomes a reality, I suggest steering clear of Brewer message boards for a while. :)

1 Comments:

Blogger Rob said...

Nice Blog. I've enjoyed reading it. I'd like to include your blog as a link on our Brewer Nation baseball blog (http://brewernation@mlblogs.com) if you would be nice enough to do the same for us. Thanks again.

10:47 AM  

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