Simulating The Rest of The Season

Normally, I'd include a bunch of uneeded charts and graphs to a post like this but time is short, so I'll get to the point. I used the teams' pythagorean record to simulate the rest of the season 100,000 times to see how the NL Central might end up. I was specifically interested in the chances of a two or three way tie occuring. I have no time to check my work, so take these numbers with a grain of salt:

Cubs win outright: 48.2%
Brewers win outright: 27.9%
Cards win outright: 9.6%

And for the tie scenarios:

Two-way Tie:			13.3%
Crew/Cubs			8.4%
Crew/Cards			2.0%
Cards/Cubs			2.8%
Three-Way Tie:			1.0%

So, the Brewers have about a 39% chance of at least tieing the NL Central. Assuming a 50% chance of winning a two way tie and a 33% chance of winning a three way tie, that gives the Crew about a 33% chance of making the playoffs.The Cubs have about a 54% chance; the Cardinals a 13% chance.

Here are the odds for the final win total for the Brewers (83 wins is the average):

Wins	Prob
87+	6%
86	7%
85	11%
84	15%
83	16%
82	16%
81	12%
80	8%
79-	8%