Friday, September 07, 2007

Simulating The Rest of The Season

Normally, I'd include a bunch of uneeded charts and graphs to a post like this but time is short, so I'll get to the point. I used the teams' pythagorean record to simulate the rest of the season 100,000 times to see how the NL Central might end up. I was specifically interested in the chances of a two or three way tie occuring. I have no time to check my work, so take these numbers with a grain of salt:

Cubs win outright: 48.2%
Brewers win outright: 27.9%
Cards win outright: 9.6%

And for the tie scenarios:

Two-way Tie:

13.3%

Crew/Cubs

8.4%

Crew/Cards

2.0%

Cards/Cubs

2.8%

Three-Way Tie:

1.0%



So, the Brewers have about a 39% chance of at least tieing the NL Central. Assuming a 50% chance of winning a two way tie and a 33% chance of winning a three way tie, that gives the Crew about a 33% chance of making the playoffs.The Cubs have about a 54% chance; the Cardinals a 13% chance.

Here are the odds for the final win total for the Brewers (83 wins is the average):

Wins Prob
87+ 6%
86 7%

85

11%

84

15%

83

16%

82

16%

81

12%
80 8%
79- 8%

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