Wednesday, July 09, 2008

How Much Did Aquiring CC Raise the Chances of a Playoff Appearance?

According to MGL:

"MIL (Increased their chances of making post by 16%, by acquiring CC.)"

The Book Blog: With all the talk of parity in baseball this year…

Dixieflatline estimated the post season appearance improvement at 10%, but I think the 1.5 win improvement he used was a tad low. I had it at about 2.5 wins and MGL pegged it at between 2.0 - 2.5 wins. 16% sounds right to me. Slightly better than a coin flip chance at this point.

Does 16% justify the move? There's a lot of factors to consider and this article considers most of them but leaves one important one out. How much did adding Sabathia improve the chances of the Brewers succeeding in the post season? I'll try and tackle that question soon.


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