Wednesday, February 11, 2009

BP 2009 Team Projections

The Looper signing pushes a replacement level pitcher out of the rotation and puts the Brewers at 85 wins, according to Baseball Prospectus:

BP 2009 Team Projections

A quick and dirty estimate says that based on that projection, the Brewers have around a 25% chance of winning 90+ games. Assuming 90 wins gets you into the playoffs 75% of the time (don't know the real number), the Brewers might have a 1:5 or 1:6 chance making the playoffs in 2009.

Hey, it's been much worse than that for the Brewers in recent years and I won't let one playoff birth let me forget that!

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