Monday, December 19, 2005

NFL Draft Order Prediction

With all the talk of the Packers getting a favorible pick in the upcoming NFL draft, I thought it would be fun to try and project where they might end up picking. Here's my best guess:

# Team Record Win % SOS

1 SF 2 - 14 0.125 0.549
2 NYJ 3 - 13 0.188 0.525
3 HOU 3 - 13 0.188 0.531
4 GB 3 - 13 0.188 0.541
5 ARI 4 - 12 0.250 0.506
6 TEN 4 - 12 0.250 0.509
7 DET 4 - 12 0.250 0.516
8 NO 4 - 12 0.250 0.521
9 OAK 4 - 12 0.250 0.532
10 BUF 5 - 11 0.313 0.504
11 BAL 5 - 11 0.313 0.525
12 STL 6 - 10 0.375 0.480
13 CLE 6 - 10 0.375 0.513
14 PHI 7 - 9 0.438 0.531
15 MIA 8 - 8 0.500 0.460
16 KC 8 - 8 0.500 0.523
17 MIN 9 - 7 0.563 0.491
18 ATL 9 - 7 0.563 0.495
19 DAL 9 - 7 0.563 0.525
20 TB 10 - 6 0.625 0.450
21 WAS 10 - 6 0.625 0.544
22 NYG 11 - 5 0.688 0.492
23 NE 11 - 5 0.688 0.498
24 PIT 11 - 5 0.688 0.506
25 SD 11 - 5 0.688 0.543
26 CHI 12 - 4 0.750 0.444
27 CAR 12 - 4 0.750 0.447
28 JAX 12 - 4 0.750 0.467
29 DEN 12 - 4 0.750 0.499
30 SEA 13 - 3 0.813 0.419
31 CIN 13 - 3 0.813 0.459
32 IND 15 - 1 0.938 0.452

That's assuming the Packers lose their remaining 3 games. You'll notice that if they win even one of their last 3, they move from 4th to 10th overall. As it works out, if they beat the Ravens tonight, they might as well win the rest of them, since it will only knock them down about 3 more picks.

If you would like to play around yourselves. Just download this excel spreadsheet:

DraftOrder.xls

It uses a macro to sort the draft order, so if you have high security on, it ain't going to work. You'll have to turn it down to medium or sort it manually. If you do it manually, be sure to sort by winning % first, then SOS (both ascending).

Let me know if anyone finds any mistakes or has any suggestions!

EDIT: Well I found a mistake. While I updated the team's SOS based on changes of win % for opponents of the last 2 weeks, I needed to go back and do it for all 16 weeks. It takes a long time to put the whole schedule in for each team, so I only did it for any team with a losing record at week 14 (14 teams). Good enough for now.

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