Thursday, February 09, 2006

Clark Signed to 2 Year Deal

In a suprise move made on the eve of his arbitration hearing, Brady Clark agreed to a 2 year, $7 million deal. He will get $3.2 mil in 2006 and $3.8 mil in 2007.

Let's look at his stats from last year, along with his PECOTA projections vs. an average 2005 MLB CFer:

Brady Clark, PECOTA Projection

Year            PA  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
2005 (Actual) 599 .306 .372 .426 .798
2006 (Proj) 559 .286 .351 .413 .764
2007 (Proj) 510 .279 .345 .403 .748
Ave 05 MLB CF --- .272 .331 .422 .753

Brady will turn 33 in April, and BP has that age catching up with him. Still, even that conservative estimate has Clark above average next year and average in 2007. Provided his defense holds up (PMR had him as the 5th best full-time CF last year), I think it's a very good deal.

The Hardball Times put Clark's Net Win Share Value at about $5 mil last year. Even if he regresses to his PECOTA projections, he'll be worth around $3 mil/year; If he stays near his 2005 numbers he'll be a steal. It's a slight risk with a nice possible reward. Even if Melvin wants to go with a younger option for CF in 2007, Clark's trade value could still be pretty darn good.

Congratulations, Brady Clark.

EDIT: Looks like the above numbers are "adjusted". I'll have to look into that.


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