Will Jenkins' HRs Increase Next Year?

A poster going by the name of "Brewercrew5" posed this question at brewerfan.net:

"I was wondering if any of you thought that Jenk's HR totals would increase this season since they are moving the right field wall in about 8 ft."

It's an interesting question and one that can be answered if prior performance can give us an insight into Jenkins' tendencies. MLB.com provides hit charts for all players, including our very own Geoff Jenkins. I looked at his last three years in Miller Park and tried to estimate how many doubles and flyouts might have been home runs with a closer right field wall. If there was a small chance it could have helped Jenkins, I gave him the benefit of the doubt. For example, here are all of Jenkins' doubles and flyouts at Miller Park in 2005:



At best, 3 doubles and 3 flyouts would have been HRs instead. Here's a summary of the last 3 years.

Geoff Jenkins, 2003-2005

       2B-HR  FO-HR
2003     2      0
2004     5      1
2005     3      3

I would estimate the short porch adding about 2 or 3 extra HRs for Jenkins next year.