Friday, March 24, 2006

Simulated 2006 Season Standings

The guys over at Replacement Level Yankees Weblog have posted an article with 2006 season predictions. They used the Diamond Mind game/simulator and various player projection systems to run simulations of 1000 seasons for each system. I'll focus on the simulations based off the PECOTA player projections, since I feel that the guys over at Baseball Prospectus have the most accurate projection system system to date:

2006 Standings, PECOTA

The average number of wins for the Brewers over the course of 1,000 full season simulations was 84. Not bad, but the exciting part is the Crew's chances of making the post season. In 25% of the simulated seasons, the Brewers advanced to post season play. They won the division in 122 of the 1,000 simulated seasons and won the wild card in 130 others. When was the last time the Brewers had a one in four shot of making the playoffs by anyone's prediction?

Anyone who owns the Diamond Mind software can download a file that I think contains all the lineups and pitchers used. If anyone checks it out, please let me know what they used for the Crew.

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