Tuesday, May 23, 2006

David Bush Will Be Fine

A couple bad outings and already Bush is being described as pathetic and horrible on message boards everywhere. Calm down people! In 10 starts, Bush is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA. His latest outing was especially painful; giving up 5 runs to the Reds in the first before recording an out. Should we be concerned?

Let’s look at some of his raw stats:

Season  K/9  BB/9  HR/9 WHIP BABIP  LOB%   FIP
2004 5.90 2.30 1.01 1.23 .284 71.4 4.31
2005 4.95 1.91 1.32 1.25 .283 71.2 4.93
2006 7.73 2.11 1.41 1.23 .301 62.3 4.40
Total 5.86 2.08 1.24 1.24 .287 69.4 4.61
Compared to his career averages, Bush is currently striking out about an extra 2 batters a game, giving up about the same number of walks and has allowed a couple extra HRs than expected. That adds up to a 4.40 FIP, pretty respectable for a back of the rotation starter. The only other problem, other than the extra dingers, has been his low LOB%. That’s usually just a sign of bad luck. His career LOB% is pretty much in line with league average, so look for that to creep up as the season progresses.

I don’t see anything to be concerned about here. If anything, Bush seems to be progressing nicely.

Bush’s THT Stats

Bush's Fangraphs Page


Anonymous Rob said...

Another player whose k rate has gone up under Maddux.

10:21 AM  

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