David Bush Will Be Fine

A couple bad outings and already Bush is being described as pathetic and horrible on message boards everywhere. Calm down people! In 10 starts, Bush is 3-4 with a 5.06 ERA. His latest outing was especially painful; giving up 5 runs to the Reds in the first before recording an out. Should we be concerned?

Let’s look at some of his raw stats:

Season  K/9  BB/9  HR/9 WHIP BABIP  LOB%   FIP
2004   5.90  2.30  1.01 1.23  .284  71.4  4.31
2005   4.95  1.91  1.32 1.25  .283  71.2  4.93
2006   7.73  2.11  1.41 1.23  .301  62.3  4.40
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Total  5.86  2.08  1.24 1.24  .287  69.4  4.61

Compared to his career averages, Bush is currently striking out about an extra 2 batters a game, giving up about the same number of walks and has allowed a couple extra HRs than expected. That adds up to a 4.40 FIP, pretty respectable for a back of the rotation starter. The only other problem, other than the extra dingers, has been his low LOB%. That’s usually just a sign of bad luck. His career LOB% is pretty much in line with league average, so look for that to creep up as the season progresses.

I don’t see anything to be concerned about here. If anything, Bush seems to be progressing nicely.

Bush’s THT Stats

Bush's Fangraphs Page