Tuesday, May 16, 2006

Series Win Probabilities - Phil @ Mil

With the season about a quarter of the way done, I'm finally comfortable to start viewing a team's raw stats as representative of their "true abilities". As a result, I'll begin posting series win probabilities for the Brewers again. I did so last year at brewerfan.net, but I've modified the methodology somewhat. Instead of starting with actual runs scored (RS) and runs against (RA), I'll use expected RS and RA using the Base Runs run estimation formula. A quick overview of the steps I use:

1. Calculate expected RS and RA, using Base Runs

2. Find expected winning percentage with the Pythagopat Equation (with a .29 exponent)

3. Use the log5 equation to calculate the probability of winning a single game against a particular opponent.

4. Calculate the probability of winning a certain amount of games in a series.

You can find the Base Runs equation HERE and the rest of the methodology HERE. Without further delay, here is the series win probabilities for the upcoming Brewers/Philli series:

I have to stress, this in no way adjusts for the particular starting pitchers that will see action during the series, which is a significant limitation. Of course, using only a quarter of season's worth of stats to represent a team's true ability is a huge limitation, so take this for what it's worth :)


Anonymous southwest brewer said...

keep the series predictions coming. i love watching the brewers beat the odds....a sweep would be beautiful.

2:09 AM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

Well, according to my calculations, they have almost a 1 in 3 chance of sweeping the Philli's, so it's not "beating the odds" too bad. :)

8:36 AM  

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