Sunday, April 23, 2006

LOB and Fox Sports Net

EDIT: This post has been updated with new graphs

Fox Sports Net has decided to add LOB numbers next to the run/hit/error chart shown at the end of each half inning. What is the significance of these numbers? Is it really bad to have high LOB numbers? Let's look at those numbers in relation to a team's OBP for the 30 MLB through April 23:

It appears that a significant portion of LOB is simply determined by the number of runners a team has total. What about LOB relative to runs scored?

While that correlation isn't significant, one can certainly eyeball the general trend. I don't have the data handy, but If I used a whole year's worth of data, I think you'd see the correlation be higher.

These two graphs can be used to sum this whole thing up:

More base runners = more runs = more LOB

Teams that generally leave a lot of men on are going to usually score a lot of runs. While there will be individual games that buck that tendency, overall, a high LOB is a good sign. I say, keep the runners left on base coming! :)


Anonymous southwest brewer said...

'I say, keep the runners left on base coming! :) '

I agree, but they should feel free to knock in a few more.

12:30 PM  
Anonymous southwest brewer said...

after taking a second look, why does your y-axis use the same numbers twice?

12:32 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

That's a really good question! I posted that Saturday night at 2 AM, so what the heck....

11:45 PM  
Anonymous southwest brewer said...

It would be nice to see the LOB vs. Runs Scored along with that OPB figure.

What is the data from? Is it all the teams' games for one day this past week?

1:45 AM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

I tried to update this yesterday but blogger was giving me fits. I use data for all 30 MLB teams through Sunday night's games. I'd rather use a whole year's worth of data but can't find a source. If anyone knows a source for it, please let me know. If not, I can use the estimate:

LOB = total base runners + ROE - runs scored - GIDP - CS

That seems to get me within about 2-5%, which is probably good enough.

LOB is simply a function of how many runners you get on base and what percentage you drive in (obviously). Teams with lower BA and/or SLG will tend to score a slightly lower percentage of their total base runners than a team with a higher BA and SLG. Of course, that can easly be compensated by having more base runners (higher OPB).

8:32 AM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

In that last equation, "total base runners" is the base runners associated with OBP:

total base runners = OBP x (AB + HBP + BB + SF)

That's why I have to add ROE (eached on error) as well.

8:39 AM  
Anonymous southwest brewer said...

Just a comment....I'm not requesting you do this.

I bet if you had a team name to all of those data points, you could make some observations. Maybe NL teams leave more on b/c of the pitcher spot? Some teams have higher OBP and less runs scored b/c they have a tough batter gets intentionally walked w/ a crap hitter behind the slugger, leaving the slugger stranded many times?

You know the data. See any trends when you did it?

1:16 PM  
Anonymous Rob said...

The next thing you should do is look at LOB/Total Base Runners vs Runs Scored.

7:10 PM  
Anonymous PrimetimeHater said...

I enjoy your posts, and the statistical analysis forum on brewerfan, so please don't take any offense to this. While this is an interesting study you've done, is this not just common sense? I'm not trying to bash you or anything, I have no real statistics background, so I usually get pretty lost in your discussions. Anyways, keep up the good work.

3:41 PM  
Anonymous Rob said...

The next thign you should do is look at LOB% versus runs scored.

7:30 PM  

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