Thursday, August 31, 2006

The Brewers Home/Road Split

The Brewers have a pretty extreme home/road split this year. Despite sitting 9 games under .500, the Brewers have the third most home wins in the NL. Of course, that has the nasty side effect of giving the Brewers the 2nd least wins on the road. All teams are expected to win more games at home than on the road but what's causing the Brewers' extreme home/road split?

I thought I'd take a peak at the RS and RA splits for home and away and see how their pythagorean record compares to the expected:

What I'm trying to show is that the distribution of runs scored and given up at home and on the road are exactly as expected. They simply exceeded their pythagorean record at home while falling short on the road. Their overall record is still much better than their pythagorean record.

If this all has to do with mental touchness, than their toughness allowed them to win 7.6 more games than expected at home, while their mental wimpiness cost them 4 runs on the road. That's a net mental toughness value of 3.6!


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