Thursday, October 05, 2006

The Twins are Dead

The Twins are down 0-2 to Oakland but some Twins fans are consoling themselves by this fact:

2000: Oak leads NY 2-1; Oak blows it
"2001: Oak leads NY 2-0; Oak blows it
2002: Oak leads Min 2-1; Oak blows it
2003: Oak leads Bos 2-0; Oak blows it"


As I said there...

"If you guys think Oakland's history of coughing up playoff series somehow improves the Twins' chances of winning the next three games, you are fooling yourselves. While it's certainly possible, the probability is both small and independent of what Oakland did in the playoffs in 2000.

Using the log5 equation (with each team’s regular season win%) and giving the home team a 4% bonus in win probability, here's what I get for the probability that the Twins will win each game and all three:

Game 3: 48%
Game 4: 48%
Game 5: 56%
All 3: 13%

Now, that completely ignores pitching match ups, so it's a rough estimation at best but it certainly gets you in the ballpark. The Twins are about 8 to 1 dogs to advance to the ALCS."

On paper, the Twins are the better team overall but down 0-2, it's probably too late for that to matter anymore.


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