Friday, June 08, 2007

Brewer MVP So Far?

If you consider defense, Hardy has been the MVP so far:

Runs Above Average

Statistically Speaking: Why Bill Stoneman is smarter than I am

The "LWT" column shows the run value of each player's contribution at the plate ( using linear weights). The "UZR" column shows their defensive contribution. The position adjustment (a big hitting SS is more valuable than an equally gifted DH) is shown in the "Pos" column.

Finding Hardy and Fielder in the one and two spot is probably no surprise to anyone. While Prince has easily been the MVP with the bat, he's really hurt his value on the defensive side of things. The big surprise, though, is Craig Counsell being 4th on the list. It's hard to believe that a guy with a .227 BA and a .291 SLG could rank anywhere near the top but Counsell has had value in other areas. With a .353 OBP, Counsell has kept his offensive production at least reasonable by limiting his outs. His main contribution has been his SS level defense at 3B, however. 8 runs over average in 40-some games is monstrous. While he wouldn't have kept that up all year, I think it's fair to suggest that Counsell hasn't hurt the Brewers as much as many thought (yes, including me).

On the slip side, according to UZR, Weeks and Hall have really hurt their value with some shoddy defense. Halls' troubles have been pretty evident, as he's made a number of obviously bad plays. Weeks, on the other hand, is a bit of a surprise. He's limited his errors but perhaps his range isn't where it should be?

Because of the small small samples involved, it would be foolish to simply extrapolate any of these numbers but they do give you an interesting snapshot of the Brewer's season so far. My money is on Hall to make the biggest positive jump on the list. Hopefully, Sean Smith will update this in a couple months.


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