Monday, June 18, 2007

Home Stand Probabilities

After a nice 5-4 road trip, the Brewers come home for a nine game home stand and their prospects look great on paper. To calculate my probabilities, I'll be lazy again and just use Baseball Prospectus' AEQR and AEQRA from their Adjusted Standings page:

Individual Game Odds

It's not hard to eyeball those odds and see that the average expected home stand record is about 5-4 or 6-3. Let's look at the the chances for all possible outcomes:

Record Probabilities

That works out to about a 75% chance of 5-4 or better and 50% of 6-3 or better. Time to take advantage and make the "on paper" a reality!


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