Tuesday, December 20, 2005

NFL Draft Order Prediction - Part 2

I thought I'd play around with scenarios that would give the Packers the best draft posiition. Getting the second overall pick isn't too far fetched. The three most important games:

WEEK 16:
Houston (@ home) beats Jacksonville

WEEK 17:
Houston (on road) beats San Fran
Jets (@ home) beat Buffalo

That ends up with:

# Tm Record SOS
1 SF 2 - 14 0.543
2 GB 3 - 13 0.547
3 ARI 4 - 12 0.504
4 DET 4 - 12 0.512

I like the Texans alot more than most, so I don't think the above scenario is too far fetched. If Houston beats Jacksonville this Sunday, I'd start to get excited. The big question is, would San Fran take Bush automatically? I don't follow those things close enough to have an opinion.

What's the most likely scenario where the Packers get the #1 overall pick? There's no easy one. Houston and San Fran would have to both win this Sunday. Then Houston would have to beat San Fran Week 17. Finally, Green Bay would have to finish with a lower SOS than Fran. Arizona beating Philli and and Baltimore beating the Vikings week 16 would make their SOS's tied. Throw in a win by the Bucs over Atlanta this Sunday and the Packers get the #1 pick outright!

Like I said, not very likely. The link to the spreadsheet is below.

DraftOrder.xls

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