Tuesday, February 14, 2006

Dunn Signs 2 Year Deal

Dunn forgoes arbitration and signs a 2 year, $18.5 million contract, with a club option in 2008 for $13 million. Great signing for the Reds, as Dunn is one of the best hitters in the league and in his prime. THIS is when you sign a guy. For Brewer fans, the irony is that Carlos Lee will sign a better deal than this when he's a free agent after next year. If Lee puts up his usual 30 HR/100+ RBI season in 06', he'll easily get a 3 year/$30+ mil deal. I'll just be glad when it's not with the Brewers.

Let's compare the career stats of these two guys:
         AGE   BA  OBP  SLG   OPS  PA/K
Dunn 26 .248 .383 .518 .902 3.80
Lee 29 .284 .337 .488 .825 7.37

I added PA/K because that Dunn's big knock, but there's no way Lee's higher batting average and lower K rate even begins to make up for that OBP difference. This is how their outs and strikeouts compare over a theoretical 650 PA season, using their career stats:
      Outs    K
Lee 431 88
Dunn 401 171
---------------
30 -91

Dunn strikes out 91 more times but also makes 30 less outs. Considering a strikeout in an average situation is only marginally worse than a normal out, I would easily take the 30 less outs and the younger guy. I know they aren't fun to watch, but the point of a batter is to create runs and less outs drives up runs alot faster than K's drives them down.

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