Sunday, February 19, 2006

Hitting With RISP a Skill?

On the last "Talking Brewers", Powell interviewed Miller and Miller brought up hitting with runners in scoring position. He mentioned how well he had done in 2004 with Oakland in that situation and compared it to his poorer performance in 2005 with the Crew. Powell pointed out that statistically minded folks feel that any variation is basically random and hitting in the clutch isn't a distinct skill.

Miller made it clear that he felt some guys were clutch but admitted most of those guys were good hitters to begin with. He said that a good mindset was very important in that situation. While I agree, I don't think that a "good mindset" is something that makes you perform better than your average with RISP. A good mindset simply keeps you from choking in that situation.

I can certainly understand Miller's viewpoint, but most people simply don't realize how much variation in batting statistics can be explained by simple luck.


Anonymous Rob said...

This is why Jim Powell is great. He knows the argument exists and the reasoning behind the argument even if he may not fully believe it. And he is willing to broach the subject. Compare that with a Drew Olsen who seems to avoid learning anything of baseball outside the quotes needed to finish his story.

7:49 PM  
Blogger rluzinski said...

I agree. Powell has always perfectly balanced discussing tradational baseball knowlege with more statistical based theories. He's a tightrope artist.

9:26 PM  

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