Tuesday, January 29, 2008

Brian Bannister Likes Stats

And he's not afraid to use them:

MLBTradeRumors: Brian Bannister Q&A, Part 3

Brawn and brains? If I wasn't married...

Tuesday, January 15, 2008

2008 Brewer Offensive ZiPS Projections

With the signing of Mike Cameron, the starting lineup is set (at least after the first 25 games). In the near future, I'll be playing around with different ways to estimate runs/game and I'll be using ZiPS projections as the foundation:
                  BA    OBP    SLG    OPS    GPA
Prince Fielder .282 .380 .571 .951 .314
Corey Hart .289 .353 .518 .871 .288
Ryan Braun .294 .332 .554 .886 .288
Bill Hall .270 .336 .475 .811 .270
Rickie Weeks .254 .363 .422 .785 .269
Mike Cameron .254 .341 .447 .788 .265
J.J. Hardy .262 .318 .421 .739 .248
Jason Kendall .257 .332 .313 .645 .228
AVERAGE .270 .344 .465 .810 .271

Gabe Gross .264 .358 .426 .784 .268
Joe Dillon .280 .338 .449 .787 .264
Anthony Gwynn .260 .325 .328 .653 .228
Michael Rivera .209 .288 .355 .643 .218
Craig Counsell .232 .307 .315 .622 .217
AVERAGE .249 .323 .375 .698 .239

Most of these projections can be found here.

GPA stands for "Gross Production Average" and it weights OBP and SLG in terms of run production better than OPS.

Friday, January 11, 2008

Brewers Sign Mike Cameron to One year Deal

Is this the final piece to the Brewers first playoff appearance in over 25 years?

Brewers Sign Cameron

The suspension sucks but I'm starting to warm up to this deal. A one year deal at $6.2 mil guaranteed is nothing these days. Cameron's Marcel projection for 2008:


Keep in mind, that projection does not account for Cameron having to play half his games the last two years in a pitcher's park, so that projection should be a tad conservative. At 35 years old, I fear that Cameron's defense might be a tad over rated these days but he should still be above average in CF. Couple that with the move of Hall back to 3B and Braun to LF and the Brewers' defense should be much improved. Is it a sexy move? No. It's simply a short term fix to one of the Brewers' greatest weaknesses of 2007, defense.

What about the 25 game suspension and how it will be handled? Hall and Braun will have to be moved right away, so they can get as much practice in at their new/old positions as possible. I assume Braun will start everyday in LF and Hart will get the majority of the starts in CF, with Gross, Dillon and Gwynn sharing the rest of the outfield load.

Tangotiger seems to think this was a great signing:

"In post 66, I have Cameron very high. I love that guy. Everyone should. Way above average.

Signing him to a 2/15 deal is a steal for the Brewers. Sending Hall to 3B, and moving Braun to LF is exactly what I called for.


The previous post he was referring to said:

"Mike Cameron:

A slightly above average hitter.
An above average fielder

Fielding: From 2006-2007, Dewan has him as +16 runs total. From 2003-mid07, MGL has him as +13 runs per 150 G. The Fans have him as a “76” (CF avg is “60"), which makes him +11 runs. All agree: he’s +1 win.

Dude plays in a killer pitcher’s park. He’s probably +0.5 wins as a hitter (maybe someone can help me out here).

He gets his 0.5 win bonus for being a CF, and loses it for aging.

Add it up, and we get: +1.5 WAA, or +3.5 WAR.

He’s in the same class as Posada and Lowell."

Good enough for me.


There's some nice analysis of this transaction at Skyking162.