10 Game Home Stand Probabilities
It's far too early to expect a teams record or run differential to accurately represent their true talent. For this exercise, I'll simply ballpark their true talent in the form of how many wins I think each team should win over the course of a season. Obviously, that's pretty subjective but I'll try to keep it reasonable. From that, I can come up with the probability the Brewers have of beating each team:
90 wins might be a bit optimistic for the Brewers (I predicted 85 wins before the season) but not unreasonable. Using those probabilities, I simulated the 10 game home stand 10,000 times with these results:
The most likely result is a 7-3 home stand, although anywhere between 5-5 and 8-2 has a reasonable chance of occurring. It's also worth noting that despite the weaker opposition at home, there's still a 13% chance of "only" going 5-5 on the home stand. While I'm sure that would disappoint many a Brewer fan (including myself!), that's simply the nature of the game. It's why there's 162 games in a season and why a 7 game playoff series is basically a crap shoot. Anything can happen in a handful of games.
And if that 6% chance of four or less wins becomes a reality, I suggest steering clear of Brewer message boards for a while. :)