Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Brewers Chances of Winning the Central?

Take some of the better projection systems, throw them into Diamond Mind and this is what you get:

The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 1

The 2008 Diamond Mind Projection Blowout Pt 2

The Hardball Times projections give the Brewers the most average wins (87.9) and ZiPS gives them the least (82.6). The average final win totals for the NL Central:

Cubs: 88.2
Brewers: 85.0
Cardinals: 78.3
Reds: 76.9
Astros: 74.6
Pirates: 69.8

It's basically the Cubs, Brewers and everyone else. These projections try to use past playing time to project future playing time, which likely means that Sheets only has around 150 IP in that 85 win total. Another 50 innings might add an extra 1.5 wins, substantially cutting into that Cubs lead. I wouldn't count on it but a fan can hope!

Saturday, March 22, 2008

Corey Hart is the NL Rightfield MVP for 2007?

That's what they tell me:

BBTF: The 2007 National League MVP

The bar might not have been set high but it's still not bad for an 11th rounder.

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Sample Size Matters!

A wonderful introduction to sample size and uncertainty:

Athletics Nation:Staturday: Small sample size

Anyone worried about Rickie Weeks right now needs to read that.