Thursday, December 28, 2006

Park Factors: 2006

USPatriot has updated his park factors for 2006. I like to use his park factors because, when possible, he uses 5 years of data (regressed) and also includes a HR park factor. Here you go:

TEAM       PF-R    PF-HR
ARI 1.06 1.06
ATL 0.99 0.98
BAL 0.98 1.03
BOS 1.02 0.94
CHA 1.02 1.13
CHN 1.01 1.07
CIN 1.01 1.08
CLE 0.97 0.93
COL 1.12 1.12
DET 0.97 0.94
FLA 0.96 0.93
HOU 1.01 1.05
KC 1.00 0.93
LA 0.96 1.04
LAA 0.97 0.94
MIL 1.00 1.03
MIN 1.00 0.95
NYA 0.98 1.01
NYN 0.97 0.95
OAK 0.99 1.00
PHI 1.03 1.08
PIT 1.00 0.95
SD 0.94 0.93
SEA 0.96 0.96
SF 0.99 0.90
STL 0.99 0.97
TB 0.99 0.98
TEX 1.07 1.08
TOR 1.03 1.07
WAS 0.97 0.94
A link to his park factor page:


Miller Park still plays as a perfectly neutral park, run wise. It still also gives up an above average amount of HRs, but the factor has reduced from 1.04 in 2005 to 1.03 when 2006 is included. That means that a Brewers batter will hit about 1.5% more HRs over the course of the year than he would had he played at a neutral HR park the whole year (assuming he plays half his games on the road).

Monday, December 25, 2006

Fangraphs on plate Discipline

Interesting article here:

Fangraphs: More on Plate Discipline

A number of Brewers are mentioned.

Comments to follow...

Wednesday, December 20, 2006

Packer Playoff Chances

It doesn't take a very smart man to figure out that the Packers have a very small chance of reaching the post season this year. It does take a man with mediocre intelligence to estimate just how bad those odds are, however! According to JSOnline, this is the "clearest and most likely way" the Packers can grab one of the two NFC wildcard spots:

• Packers win twice (MIN and @ CHI)
• Giants lose twice (NO and @ WAS)
• Rams lose once (WAS and @ MIN)
• Falcons lose once (CAR and @ PHI)
• Seattle wins once (SD and @ TB) or SF loses once (ARI and @ DEN)

I made some guestimations for individual game probabilities and then crunched the numbers:

Assuming the Packers take care of business by winning out (huge assumption, obviously), the biggest obstacle is needing the Giants to lose their remaining two games. The Giants probably have a better chance of winning their remaining games than losing them both, so Packer fans shouldn't be holding their breath. Still, it's insane to think that if the Packers win and the Giants lose this week, the Packers still have a shot going into the final week of the season. It won't be good odds but anything greater than zero will exceed most Packer fan's pre-season estimates.

Any of my individual game predictions way off? Any better scenarios that allow the Packers to squeak in?

2007 Brewer projections - ZiPS

These came out almost a month ago but better late than never:

2007 ZiPS Projections - Milwaukee Brewers

Here are some of the hitter projections:

Name                 AVG     OBP     SLG     OPS
Prince Fielder 0.280 0.358 0.513 0.871
Bill Hall 0.268 0.334 0.496 0.830
Corey Hart 0.263 0.333 0.462 0.795
Kevin Mench 0.272 0.330 0.464 0.794
Rickie Weeks 0.262 0.343 0.433 0.776
Geoff Jenkins 0.260 0.338 0.434 0.772
Corey Koskie 0.246 0.340 0.431 0.771
Ryan Braun 0.262 0.321 0.440 0.761
Gabe Gross 0.266 0.348 0.411 0.759
Johnny Estrada 0.277 0.323 0.404 0.727
Brady Clark 0.272 0.364 0.361 0.725
J.J. Hardy 0.248 0.326 0.392 0.718
Tony Graffanino 0.256 0.338 0.372 0.710
Damian Miller 0.247 0.319 0.369 0.688
Anthony Gwynn 0.246 0.310 0.320 0.630

I'd be certainly happy with that Fielder projection but there's no way Hall's projection is anywhere close to right. If the rest of those projections are fair, the offense is going to struggle to put up runs.

Pitcher projections:

Name                 ERA    WHIP    K/BB    HR/9
Ben Sheets 2.88 1.02 7.25 0.99
Francisco Cordero 3.33 1.26 2.48 0.62
Matt Wise 3.51 1.25 2.10 0.92
David Bush 3.79 1.19 3.40 1.02
Chris Capuano 4.11 1.29 2.61 1.22
Jose Capellan 4.16 1.39 1.73 0.87
Brian Shouse 4.40 1.40 1.60 0.96
Carlos Villanuev 4.59 1.36 2.13 1.43
Greg Aquino 4.98 1.43 1.89 1.13
Claudio Vargas 5.03 1.38 2.30 1.52
Derrick Turnbow 5.12 1.55 1.41 1.25

Sheets, Cappy and Bush are a great 1,2,3. If the Brewers can fill the #4 and #5 spots with anythinng decent, that is going to be an excellant rotation. It will have to be to make up for that offense.

Tuesday, December 12, 2006

Updated Roster and Projected Payroll

Last night, Melvin indicated that he'd be offering arbitration to all eligible players on the roster. Here's what the roster and projected payroll looks like right now:

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A $16 mil bench? Wow! I'm sorry but there's something wrong when 25% of your payroll doesn't start. For those appreciating having nice backups in case of injury, I just can't get very excited about that. If the Brewers have any chance at a post season run next year, everything is going to have to be almost perfect. Significant injuries to any of the starters will probably boom the team anyway. What's the point of having a good plan B when it won't matter anyway? I'd rather strengthen plan A.

Before I get too crazy, you'll probably notice that there are 6 outfielders and 11 pitchers on the projected 25 man roster, so something obviously has to give. Frankly, I have no idea what Melvin is up to at this point, so I can offer up nothing more than general guesses.

In a chat last week, Melvin indicated that he doesn't see Mench or Jenkins being part of a platoon next year, so (if we can believe Melvin) something obviously has to give there. Some serious bridges were apparently burned between Jenkins and Brewer management last year. I'm not sure if they can be mended at this point. It wouldn't surprise me if Jenkins is unloaded for next to nothing in return, with Melvin still having to take on some of Jenkins' contract. That would clear the way for Mench to **SIGH** become the everyday starter. I don't think Mench is horrible but his offensive ceiling appears to be slightly above average and his defense last year was underwhelming, to say the least.

Right now, I'm very unhappy with this off season but a couple moves could change that very quickly. Let's hope Melvin has a couple tricks left up his sleeve.

Friday, December 08, 2006

Quiet Winter Meetings

The winter meetings came and went with nothing on the Brewer front. While the names of Jenkins, Mench and Turnbow came up in multiple rumors, either no team was willing to commit or Melvin is holding out for something better. I assume the prior. I decision about Mench will need to be made soon, as the non-tender date is fast approaching (Dec. 12th).

The only recent news has been that Graffy was offered and accepted arbitration. Melvin insists that the Brewers want to bring back Cirillo as well, which would put the Brewers in the odd position of having 8 infielders on the 25 man roster (Hall will most likely end up in the outfield, as it stands). My guess is that Graffy will be traded before the season started, or at least that's what Melvin is banking on. I guess we'll see.

I've been pretty underwelmed by the off season moves so far but there's still a long way to go....